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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or just the biggest upset.

But this year's race is profoundly unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans ascending together. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and fun season, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal ballot should be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his special ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still