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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “help with the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as assurances matching NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be conceivable if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.